Batteries and energy storage continue to underpin electrification trends, solidifying their role as a cornerstone in the global shift toward sustainable energy. Support is being strengthened by strategic investments from governments and corporations, and resilient demand for critical minerals like lithium, copper and nickel. 

Big tech is turning to nuclear energy to fuel the massive power needs of AI-driven data centers. They're striking bold deals to develop small modular reactors (SMRs), sparking a surge in uranium demand and helping to support clean energy innovation. At the same time, global uranium supply remains inadequate to meet both current and future reactor requirements.

Demand for electricity over the next decade will put pressure on the U.S. power grid to keep pace. New investment in power-hungry industrial facilities is driving demand, especially the data centers that support artificial intelligence (AI), U.S. reshoring initiatives and the steady electrification of the transport sector.

The uranium market has faced short-term volatility, including price declines driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains strong. Supply uncertainties from key producers like Kazakhstan and Russia are contributing to this volatility, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance suggests further growth potential.

Renewable energy is rapidly replacing fossil fuels as costs decrease and efficiencies improve with increased deployment, making it much cheaper than traditional energy sources. This shift, driven by the exponential growth of renewables, electrification, and efficiency, is expected to significantly alter global power dynamics as fossil fuels are phased out.

This might be an ideal moment to re-evaluate lithium miners given their potential to benefit as the global energy transition continues. The current dip in the price of lithium miners presents a potential short-term opportunity, given the strong future demand and supply imbalance. 

The uranium spot price has remained range-bound between $85 and $95 per pound, and ended the first half at $85.34 (June 30, 2024). Uranium miners fell in June, but bounced back in early July, outperforming the commodity YTD. Over the longer term, physical uranium and uranium miners have demonstrated significant outperformance against broad asset classes, particularly other commodities.

The world is in the midst of a fourth industrial revolution (4IR) as technological developments like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, IoT, genetic engineering and quantum computing bring about an unprecedented integration of the digital, physical and biological realms. Electrification and energy are pivotal to advancing 4IR technologies, and the resulting demand pressures on critical minerals like copper, lithium and uranium are supporting a new commodity supercycle.

Thus far in 2024, the uranium spot price has stabilized between $85 to $95 per pound after a significant 88.54% increase in 2023. This phase indicates a healthy correction within a bullish market cycle. Uranium miners have shown improved performance, catching up to gains in the spot price. 

The copper market is entering a new supercycle, built on several rising geopolitical and market trends contributing to a strong bullish outlook. Demand is surging as countries invest in clean energy and protect their access to copper, while supply is constrained by a lack of new mine development.

The rise of AI and data centers is likely to significantly increase global electricity demand, creating challenges for power grids but also opportunities for stable, clean energy sources like nuclear power. AI data centers are also likely to support increased demand for copper.

The uranium market showed mixed performance in March: the spot uranium price fell but miners' stocks rose due to long-term positive outlook for uranium demand. With no meaningful new supply on the horizon for three to five years, we believe the uranium bull market has further room to run.

The energy sector has experienced a remarkable transformation, primarily driven by the rapid growth and integration of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is the advancement of battery storage technology, a critical enabler that promises to reshape how we generate, distribute and consume electricity. As we examine this evolving landscape, it becomes evident that battery storage is a technological cornerstone for a sustainable energy future.

Uranium markets pulled back in February after a rapid rise—in our view, this is a healthy pause in the ongoing uranium bull market. Announcements from Kazatomprom and Cameco underscored the uranium markets' structural supply deficit, while global governments continued to champion the benefits of nuclear energy.

February was a lackluster month for critical materials, but the backdrop remains very positive. The global commitment to clean energy hit a new milestone in 2023 as investment in energy transition surged to an unprecedented $1.77 trillion, led by electrified transport. Over the past 10 years, investment in global energy transition has grown at a 24% compound annual rate, several times the global GDP growth rate.

Uranium price surged 11% in January to $101 per pound, fueled in part by Kazatomprom's cut in guidance for 2024 production by ~14%. Junior uranium miners were top performers for the month, climbing 18.78%. Supply uncertainties continue to dominate markets, given the situation in Niger and possible bans on Russian uranium. 

A significant transition is underway in global energy production. The era of renewable energy is emerging and beginning to reshape power generation. Recent trends suggest that this shift is no fleeting phenomenon but a fundamental transformation powered by the relentless fall in renewable energy costs. The world is investing heavily in renewables. Some 62% of total global energy investment is now directed to clean energy.

What forces are likely to drive energy transition materials and precious metals markets in 2024 and over the next decade? We discuss 10 critical macroeconomic and market-specific themes ranging from deglobalization and climate policy to the new commodity supercycle and a potential silver price breakout.

The U3O8 uranium spot price broke through $80 per pound, gaining 8.39% in November and is up 67.10% YTD; uranium stocks followed suit. COP28 was dubbed the "nuclear COP" in recognition of nuclear power's increasing importance and a growing awareness of a uranium supply-demand gap.

The long-term trajectory for EVs is positive despite the recent slowdown. The EV industry is navigating the typical challenges of early technology adoption, with continuous investments and technological advancements driving the transition to electrification. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are the preferred battery technology for EVs, thanks to their superior technical properties and significant investment in their development and infrastructure.

The uranium price increased in October, reaching a 12-year high at $74.48 per pound. Although uranium mining stocks pulled back last month, the stronger uranium price has boosted producer revenues and the potential for mine restarts and new developments. A growing supply deficit is helping to support higher price levels as the West focuses on reshoring supply chains. 

As the United States advances in its pursuit of clean energy, it is strategically redirecting its energy security emphasis from oil to critical minerals. This dynamic shift is designed to decrease reliance on oil, and diminish the influence of oil geopolitics and the sway of petrostates such as Russia.

Uranium's performance helped the energy transition complex close higher in September. From a macro outlook, solar panels are emerging as a critical player in the global energy transition. Evolving technologies in renewable energy, especially in the solar space, are driving a surge in silver demand which may likely outpace supply over the next decade.

Uranium and uranium mining stocks posted their best month in two years, as the price of U3O8 reached a 12-year high. YTD as of 9/30/23, physical uranium has risen 51.88% and uranium mining equities have gained 23.93%. Positive sentiment toward nuclear power is growing, and the WNA estimates that uranium demand will double by 2040. Western nations are strategically maneuvering to reduce their dependence on Russia for both uranium supplies and related services.

Uranium and uranium mining stocks had a strong month in August. YTD as of 8/31/2023, spot uranium and uranium mining stocks have climbed 25.49% and 21.52%, respectively, outperforming the frothy S&P 500 TR Index's YTD return of 18.73%. We believe the uranium bull market is intact and favorable supply-demand dynamics will likely continue to provide support.

Uranium had a strong month in August, contrasting with the decline of most energy transition metals due to China's economic troubles and shadow banking woes. The investment capital spurred by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is turning the U.S. into a cleantech powerhouse, reshaping global economics. The old China-led commodity supercycle is giving way to a new U.S.-based supercycle focusing on clean energy and innovation.

Uranium continued to outshine other commodities, with U3O8 surging 16.35% and uranium miner stocks climbing 9.11% YTD as of July 31, 2023. The growing embrace of nuclear energy is driving demand and sparking a resurgence in uranium mine operations. The U.S. opened its first new nuclear power facility in 30 years (Georgia Power's Plant Vogtle) and is actively legislating to reduce dependency on Russia's nuclear supply chain.

Given increased electricity demand and the risks posed by climate change, the U.S. power grid desperately needs modernization. There is an immediate need to expand the grid’s capacity, increase its resilience and support its most vulnerable components – the transmission and distribution lines. This is driving the development of energy storage systems and V2G (vehicle-to-grid) technology and is a major copper demand driver. 

Uranium markets rallied in June with the U3O8 uranium spot price adding 2.61%. U3O8 has climbed a healthy 15.95% YTD, while most other commodities have lost ground. Greater focus on the uranium supply-demand gap helped boost uranium mining stocks in June, with junior miners up 18.88%. Positive momentum in reshoring supply chains continues, given looming sanctions on Russian uranium.

Energy transition metals miners posted strong results in June, with uranium mining equities leading the group. The U.S. is entering the early stages of a manufacturing supercycle driven by massive energy transition investment, which includes building a secure and resilient domestic EV battery supply chain. The U.S. and EU are likely to replace China as the primary drivers of future metals demand, as China's two-decades-long commodities dominance has likely crested.

The U3O8 uranium spot price gained 1.58% in May,* increasing from US$53.74 to $54.59 per pound as of May 31, 2023. Uranium has posted a healthy 12.99% year-to-date return as of May 31, and continued to show strength and diversification relative to other commodities, which declined 13.16% YTD (as measured by the BCOM Index).

Lithium and lithium miners staged a sharp rebound rally in May and were the positive exception among critical minerals. The sector was weighed down by China's faltering recovery, ongoing global growth concerns and the U.S. debt ceiling drama. China’s dominance in critical minerals poses risks to the West’s manufacturing base and national security, highlighting the need for onshoring and friend-shoring energy transition supply chains.

The long-term secular growth outlook for energy transition materials got several boosts in April, despite tepid performance for the month. Chile's decision to nationalize its lithium reserves reinforces the metal's role as a global strategic economic asset. M&A activity has heated up in the copper mining sector with lofty bids, including Glencore's $23 billion rejected offer for Teck Resources at a 20% premium.

The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 6.01% in April, closing the month at $53.74. The U3O8 price reacted positively to China's bullish comments about its ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity to supply 18% of its electricity needs by 2060, up from 5% today. YTD, the uranium spot price has gained 11.24% as global acceptance of nuclear energy increases and positive momentum builds within the uranium industry.

Commodity prices weakened in March in reaction to financial system stress and recession fears. As deglobalization accelerates, unfettered access to critical minerals is not likely to last. The old system of free and fair access to commodities, including critical minerals, is moving toward one marked by interregional competition, and unstable availability and pricing. China has moved aggressively to acquire critical minerals in the past 20, but we believe the West has near-unmatched capabilities and is a formidable competitor.

The U3O8 uranium spot price fell slightly in March, from $50.85 to $50.70. YTD through 3/31/2023, uranium has gained 4.93%, demonstrating resilience relative to other commodities (down 6.47% as measured by the BCOM Index). Along with other equities, uranium mining stocks fell in March, victims of the selloff following the U.S.'s biggest banking crisis since 2008. Positive headlines on nuclear power restarts continued in March.

February saw energy transition materials/critical minerals markets correct, but the secular story remains strong. As the global energy transition "arms race" heats up, the drive to secure supply is fast becoming more important than price. All signs indicate the 40-year bond bull market has likely ended and the next great secular bull market in commodities has begun.

Although markets in February saw a reversal of January's positive performance, spot uranium posted a slight gain of 0.20%, outperforming many other asset classes. Uranium miners made headlines with significantly-sized uranium contracts that reflect higher demand for long-term supply commitments. Uranium market fundamentals are the most positive in over a decade and are likely to continue to be the primary performance driver.

We believe we are in the early stages of an energy transition materials secular bull market and favorable supply-demand dynamics are likely going forward. The upward revision in global growth, the timing effect of the China credit impulse and the surprise ending of China's zero-COVID policy have provided a tailwind for the metals market. For energy transition metals, we see this as a cyclical boost on top of the robust secular demand that is in play.

January was a strong month for uranium markets, with U3O8 uranium spot price posting a 5.05% increase and uranium mining equities gaining 14.65%. Looking ahead, we believe the uranium bull market still has a long way to run. Over the long term, increased demand in the face of an uncertain uranium supply is likely to support a sustained bull market.

Three key themes for uranium markets in 2023: 1) increased emphasis on energy security worldwide; 2) higher conversion/enrichment prices may boost spot uranium prices; and 3) the global energy transition supports the case for nuclear power. Uranium's performance was notably strong in 2022, despite the overall bear market. Although uranium mining equities fared less well, we believe that the positive fundamentals for uranium and nuclear energy are likely to provide support in 2023.

The uranium markets did not perform as well as other sectors in November, despite having posted relatively strong performance throughout 2022. While the price of U3O8 uranium has lagged since May 2022, conversion and enriched uranium prices have significantly appreciated. We believe that current demand, coupled with a shift away from Russian suppliers, is likely to support a higher U3O8 uranium spot price.

The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 8.32% in October, rising from $48.25 to $52.27 per pound. YTD as of October 31, 2022, the uranium spot price has climbed by 24.12%. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact despite the negative macroeconomic environment. Our outlook is supported by the unprecedented number of announcements for nuclear power plant restarts, life extensions and new builds that are all creating demand for uranium.

September was tough on uranium (both physical and stocks), which was negatively impacted by the month's drawdowns. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact, especially given that many countries are facing energy shortages and rocketing costs. Nuclear energy provides a solution as a reliable, affordable baseload energy source.