Per Jander and James Connor discuss the uranium market, highlighting the catalysts for sharp increases in uranium prices in 2023, including increased utility and producer activity, production shortfalls from major players like Cameco and Orano, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply. Per Jander expresses optimism for the uranium market, emphasizing strong demand, ongoing long-term contracting discussions and potential supply disruptions as factors that could contribute to further price increases in 2024.

The uranium price increased in October, reaching a 12-year high at $74.48 per pound. Although uranium mining stocks pulled back last month, the stronger uranium price has boosted producer revenues and the potential for mine restarts and new developments. A growing supply deficit is helping to support higher price levels as the West focuses on reshoring supply chains. 

Uranium and uranium mining stocks posted their best month in two years, as the price of U3O8 reached a 12-year high. YTD as of 9/30/23, physical uranium has risen 51.88% and uranium mining equities have gained 23.93%. Positive sentiment toward nuclear power is growing, and the WNA estimates that uranium demand will double by 2040. Western nations are strategically maneuvering to reduce their dependence on Russia for both uranium supplies and related services.

Per Jander, WMC Technical Advisor to Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, draws upon his years of experience as a uranium trader to reveal how the market works. Who are the buyers and sellers, how is uranium transacted and how will the market evolve moving forward? Per answers these questions and more to give investors a better understanding of the dynamics of the uranium trade.

The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a revival. Geopolitical events and a surge in energy demand have shifted sentiment positively, with countries investing in new nuclear reactor builds, restarts and extensions. This has created a growth opportunity for uranium miners, especially as the uranium supply is facing challenges in meeting current and future demand.

The clean energy transition and worldwide energy security goals are fueling a global power shift. This shift has reignited interest in nuclear power, accelerated electric vehicle (EV) adoption and spurred renewable energy deployment. In this environment, uranium, lithium, copper and other high-demand, short-supply critical minerals are vitally crucial — and potentially attractive as investment opportunities.

Uranium and uranium mining stocks had a strong month in August. YTD as of 8/31/2023, spot uranium and uranium mining stocks have climbed 25.49% and 21.52%, respectively, outperforming the frothy S&P 500 TR Index's YTD return of 18.73%. We believe the uranium bull market is intact and favorable supply-demand dynamics will likely continue to provide support.

Uranium continued to outshine other commodities, with U3O8 surging 16.35% and uranium miner stocks climbing 9.11% YTD as of July 31, 2023. The growing embrace of nuclear energy is driving demand and sparking a resurgence in uranium mine operations. The U.S. opened its first new nuclear power facility in 30 years (Georgia Power's Plant Vogtle) and is actively legislating to reduce dependency on Russia's nuclear supply chain.

Uranium markets rallied in June with the U3O8 uranium spot price adding 2.61%. U3O8 has climbed a healthy 15.95% YTD, while most other commodities have lost ground. Greater focus on the uranium supply-demand gap helped boost uranium mining stocks in June, with junior miners up 18.88%. Positive momentum in reshoring supply chains continues, given looming sanctions on Russian uranium.

Chemical reactions of fossil-fuel plants release more radiation into the environment than the operation of nuclear energy plants — 10 times more. Most nuclear-industry waste is relatively low in radioactivity, and only a small amount is produced. Estimates put the total waste from a nuclear reactor supplying one person's electricity needs for a year at the size of a standard brick.

The U3O8 uranium spot price gained 1.58% in May,* increasing from US$53.74 to $54.59 per pound as of May 31, 2023. Uranium has posted a healthy 12.99% year-to-date return as of May 31, and continued to show strength and diversification relative to other commodities, which declined 13.16% YTD (as measured by the BCOM Index).

The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 6.01% in April, closing the month at $53.74. The U3O8 price reacted positively to China's bullish comments about its ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity to supply 18% of its electricity needs by 2060, up from 5% today. YTD, the uranium spot price has gained 11.24% as global acceptance of nuclear energy increases and positive momentum builds within the uranium industry.

The U3O8 uranium spot price fell slightly in March, from $50.85 to $50.70. YTD through 3/31/2023, uranium has gained 4.93%, demonstrating resilience relative to other commodities (down 6.47% as measured by the BCOM Index). Along with other equities, uranium mining stocks fell in March, victims of the selloff following the U.S.'s biggest banking crisis since 2008. Positive headlines on nuclear power restarts continued in March.

Although markets in February saw a reversal of January's positive performance, spot uranium posted a slight gain of 0.20%, outperforming many other asset classes. Uranium miners made headlines with significantly-sized uranium contracts that reflect higher demand for long-term supply commitments. Uranium market fundamentals are the most positive in over a decade and are likely to continue to be the primary performance driver.

John Ciampaglia: “I think it's an interesting time to be investing in uranium — from a fundamental perspective, from an energy policy perspective, from a geopolitical risk perspective….we've experienced a sea change in the level of interest related to uranium, energy transition materials and mining investments.” Bloor Street Capital's Nuclear and Uranium Virtual Conference featured John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, and Per Jander, WMC Energy, Director, Nuclear & Renewables.

As the world sets aggressive goals to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and move to cleaner energy sources, critical minerals will be essential. Due to years of underinvestment, we believe demand is likely to outstrip supply for many energy transition materials, including uranium, lithium, copper, nickel and others. The investment opportunities may be powerful.

January was a strong month for uranium markets, with U3O8 uranium spot price posting a 5.05% increase and uranium mining equities gaining 14.65%. Looking ahead, we believe the uranium bull market still has a long way to run. Over the long term, increased demand in the face of an uncertain uranium supply is likely to support a sustained bull market.

Three key themes for uranium markets in 2023: 1) increased emphasis on energy security worldwide; 2) higher conversion/enrichment prices may boost spot uranium prices; and 3) the global energy transition supports the case for nuclear power. Uranium's performance was notably strong in 2022, despite the overall bear market. Although uranium mining equities fared less well, we believe that the positive fundamentals for uranium and nuclear energy are likely to provide support in 2023.