The uranium market remains strong despite recent spot price declines, with tight supply, rising demand and long-term fundamentals driving a bullish outlook. Global support for nuclear energy is growing, with ambitious commitments to triple capacity and junior miners playing a key role in addressing supply deficits.

Big tech is turning to nuclear energy to fuel the massive power needs of AI-driven data centers. They're striking bold deals to develop small modular reactors (SMRs), sparking a surge in uranium demand and helping to support clean energy innovation. At the same time, global uranium supply remains inadequate to meet both current and future reactor requirements.

The uranium market has faced short-term volatility, including price declines driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains strong. Supply uncertainties from key producers like Kazakhstan and Russia are contributing to this volatility, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance suggests further growth potential.

The uranium spot price has remained range-bound between $85 and $95 per pound, and ended the first half at $85.34 (June 30, 2024). Uranium miners fell in June, but bounced back in early July, outperforming the commodity YTD. Over the longer term, physical uranium and uranium miners have demonstrated significant outperformance against broad asset classes, particularly other commodities.

Thus far in 2024, the uranium spot price has stabilized between $85 to $95 per pound after a significant 88.54% increase in 2023. This phase indicates a healthy correction within a bullish market cycle. Uranium miners have shown improved performance, catching up to gains in the spot price. 

Rising global commitments to nuclear energy are helping to make uranium a compelling investment. While spot uranium prices have come down slightly after a significant rise, we believe there is room for growth given that demand is expected to climb as the need for low-carbon energy sources intensifies. We believe that uranium miners can add growth potential and diversification to investor portfolios.

The uranium market showed mixed performance in March: the spot uranium price fell but miners' stocks rose due to long-term positive outlook for uranium demand. With no meaningful new supply on the horizon for three to five years, we believe the uranium bull market has further room to run.

Uranium markets pulled back in February after a rapid rise—in our view, this is a healthy pause in the ongoing uranium bull market. Announcements from Kazatomprom and Cameco underscored the uranium markets' structural supply deficit, while global governments continued to champion the benefits of nuclear energy.

Uranium price surged 11% in January to $101 per pound, fueled in part by Kazatomprom's cut in guidance for 2024 production by ~14%. Junior uranium miners were top performers for the month, climbing 18.78%. Supply uncertainties continue to dominate markets, given the situation in Niger and possible bans on Russian uranium. 

2023 provided the long-awaited inflection point for the uranium contracting cycle whereby we have finally achieved replacement rate levels. We believe the era of uranium inventory destocking and utility complacency is over. Long-term security of supply concerns, fanned by lingering geopolitical risks and the challenges of expanding primary production, are likely the key themes to watch.