Big tech is turning to nuclear energy to fuel the massive power needs of AI-driven data centers. They're striking bold deals to develop small modular reactors (SMRs), sparking a surge in uranium demand and helping to support clean energy innovation. At the same time, global uranium supply remains inadequate to meet both current and future reactor requirements.

The uranium market has faced short-term volatility, including price declines driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains strong. Supply uncertainties from key producers like Kazakhstan and Russia are contributing to this volatility, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance suggests further growth potential.

The uranium spot price has remained range-bound between $85 and $95 per pound, and ended the first half at $85.34 (June 30, 2024). Uranium miners fell in June, but bounced back in early July, outperforming the commodity YTD. Over the longer term, physical uranium and uranium miners have demonstrated significant outperformance against broad asset classes, particularly other commodities.

Thus far in 2024, the uranium spot price has stabilized between $85 to $95 per pound after a significant 88.54% increase in 2023. This phase indicates a healthy correction within a bullish market cycle. Uranium miners have shown improved performance, catching up to gains in the spot price. 

The uranium market showed mixed performance in March: the spot uranium price fell but miners' stocks rose due to long-term positive outlook for uranium demand. With no meaningful new supply on the horizon for three to five years, we believe the uranium bull market has further room to run.

Electricity demand is expected to grow 86% by 2050. At the same time, most of the world is committed to seeking zero-carbon emissions and increasing nuclear energy capacity. At the center of this growth and transformation are uranium and copper – two critical materials that are in high demand and limited supply. These materials and their miners are potentially attractive investment opportunities.

Uranium markets pulled back in February after a rapid rise—in our view, this is a healthy pause in the ongoing uranium bull market. Announcements from Kazatomprom and Cameco underscored the uranium markets' structural supply deficit, while global governments continued to champion the benefits of nuclear energy.

Uranium price surged 11% in January to $101 per pound, fueled in part by Kazatomprom's cut in guidance for 2024 production by ~14%. Junior uranium miners were top performers for the month, climbing 18.78%. Supply uncertainties continue to dominate markets, given the situation in Niger and possible bans on Russian uranium. 

The U3O8 uranium spot price broke through $80 per pound, gaining 8.39% in November and is up 67.10% YTD; uranium stocks followed suit. COP28 was dubbed the "nuclear COP" in recognition of nuclear power's increasing importance and a growing awareness of a uranium supply-demand gap.

The uranium price increased in October, reaching a 12-year high at $74.48 per pound. Although uranium mining stocks pulled back last month, the stronger uranium price has boosted producer revenues and the potential for mine restarts and new developments. A growing supply deficit is helping to support higher price levels as the West focuses on reshoring supply chains. 

Uranium and uranium mining stocks posted their best month in two years, as the price of U3O8 reached a 12-year high. YTD as of 9/30/23, physical uranium has risen 51.88% and uranium mining equities have gained 23.93%. Positive sentiment toward nuclear power is growing, and the WNA estimates that uranium demand will double by 2040. Western nations are strategically maneuvering to reduce their dependence on Russia for both uranium supplies and related services.

Uranium and uranium mining stocks had a strong month in August. YTD as of 8/31/2023, spot uranium and uranium mining stocks have climbed 25.49% and 21.52%, respectively, outperforming the frothy S&P 500 TR Index's YTD return of 18.73%. We believe the uranium bull market is intact and favorable supply-demand dynamics will likely continue to provide support.

Uranium continued to outshine other commodities, with U3O8 surging 16.35% and uranium miner stocks climbing 9.11% YTD as of July 31, 2023. The growing embrace of nuclear energy is driving demand and sparking a resurgence in uranium mine operations. The U.S. opened its first new nuclear power facility in 30 years (Georgia Power's Plant Vogtle) and is actively legislating to reduce dependency on Russia's nuclear supply chain.

Uranium markets rallied in June with the U3O8 uranium spot price adding 2.61%. U3O8 has climbed a healthy 15.95% YTD, while most other commodities have lost ground. Greater focus on the uranium supply-demand gap helped boost uranium mining stocks in June, with junior miners up 18.88%. Positive momentum in reshoring supply chains continues, given looming sanctions on Russian uranium.

The U3O8 uranium spot price gained 1.58% in May,* increasing from US$53.74 to $54.59 per pound as of May 31, 2023. Uranium has posted a healthy 12.99% year-to-date return as of May 31, and continued to show strength and diversification relative to other commodities, which declined 13.16% YTD (as measured by the BCOM Index).

The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 6.01% in April, closing the month at $53.74. The U3O8 price reacted positively to China's bullish comments about its ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity to supply 18% of its electricity needs by 2060, up from 5% today. YTD, the uranium spot price has gained 11.24% as global acceptance of nuclear energy increases and positive momentum builds within the uranium industry.

The U3O8 uranium spot price fell slightly in March, from $50.85 to $50.70. YTD through 3/31/2023, uranium has gained 4.93%, demonstrating resilience relative to other commodities (down 6.47% as measured by the BCOM Index). Along with other equities, uranium mining stocks fell in March, victims of the selloff following the U.S.'s biggest banking crisis since 2008. Positive headlines on nuclear power restarts continued in March.

Although markets in February saw a reversal of January's positive performance, spot uranium posted a slight gain of 0.20%, outperforming many other asset classes. Uranium miners made headlines with significantly-sized uranium contracts that reflect higher demand for long-term supply commitments. Uranium market fundamentals are the most positive in over a decade and are likely to continue to be the primary performance driver.

January was a strong month for uranium markets, with U3O8 uranium spot price posting a 5.05% increase and uranium mining equities gaining 14.65%. Looking ahead, we believe the uranium bull market still has a long way to run. Over the long term, increased demand in the face of an uncertain uranium supply is likely to support a sustained bull market.

Three key themes for uranium markets in 2023: 1) increased emphasis on energy security worldwide; 2) higher conversion/enrichment prices may boost spot uranium prices; and 3) the global energy transition supports the case for nuclear power. Uranium's performance was notably strong in 2022, despite the overall bear market. Although uranium mining equities fared less well, we believe that the positive fundamentals for uranium and nuclear energy are likely to provide support in 2023.

The uranium markets did not perform as well as other sectors in November, despite having posted relatively strong performance throughout 2022. While the price of U3O8 uranium has lagged since May 2022, conversion and enriched uranium prices have significantly appreciated. We believe that current demand, coupled with a shift away from Russian suppliers, is likely to support a higher U3O8 uranium spot price.

The U3O8 uranium spot price climbed 8.32% in October, rising from $48.25 to $52.27 per pound. YTD as of October 31, 2022, the uranium spot price has climbed by 24.12%. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact despite the negative macroeconomic environment. Our outlook is supported by the unprecedented number of announcements for nuclear power plant restarts, life extensions and new builds that are all creating demand for uranium.

September was tough on uranium (both physical and stocks), which was negatively impacted by the month's drawdowns. We believe the uranium bull market remains intact, especially given that many countries are facing energy shortages and rocketing costs. Nuclear energy provides a solution as a reliable, affordable baseload energy source.