Uranium Outlook Mid-Year 2025

July 1, 2025 | (9 mins 13 secs)

For the latest standardized performance and holdings of Sprott Uranium ETFs, please visit the individual website pages: URNM and URNJ. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, joins James Connor at the Bloor Street Capital Virtual Uranium Conference to examine the current state of the uranium market. Ciampaglia highlights the market's V-shaped recovery since April and the improved investor sentiment following the absence of tariffs on uranium.

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Video Transcript

James Connor: John, thank you very much for joining us today. It seems like every time we get together, significant events happen in the nuclear energy sector or the uranium market.

John Ciampaglia: We are coming into a seasonally slow period with summer, but I feel it won't be like traditional summers because this has not been a traditional year so far. Many participants have been paralyzed with uncertainty, distracted by a lot of noise in the marketplace and have just not come to the market to buy. When you look at UX Consulting's year-to-date term market contracting levels, they are at 26 million pounds year-to-date. That is about one-third the run rate of replacement rate.

That signals to us that utilities have not been buying uranium thus far this year. They were a little bit light last year, and this is all leading to a lot of pent-up demand in the pipeline, in our opinion. This could be a very interesting summer, and I think the market will be much more active relative to other summers when the uranium market tends to be quiet.

James Connor: The key word you just threw out there is uncertainty. We've seen this repeatedly in the last few months with companies reporting Q1 and Q2 numbers globally. People are just saying people are paralyzed, and they're not spending as much, they're not traveling as much, because of this uncertainty associated with the trade wars and tariffs, etc.

John Ciampaglia: Obviously, the uranium equities were following the spot price lower. From January 1 to around April 7, we had a significant correction among the uranium stocks. We were down about 30% over that period. It was very frustrating for investors that remained very bullish and constructive, medium to long term, that all of this negative sentiment was pulling down the sector, even though this is a sector that has highly inelastic demand and that we know utilities if they delay and defer, are just going to have to buy more later in the future.

It’s been very positive since April 7, which is, I believe, when the stocks bottomed. First, tariffs were largely not applied to uranium, which was a real lift in sentiment. Since that period in April, we've had 11 consecutive weeks of gains in the uranium mining stocks, which is great. They're up about 60% over that period.

We've had a very sharp V-shape recovery. Even with that big spike, they're still up modestly for the year. But there are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines.

James Connor: You and your team are always on the road in marketing, and I'm curious to hear what investors are saying. Are people asking you a lot about the uranium products, or is there still a lot of focus on gold?

John Ciampaglia: People are looking at uranium as better insulated against all the noise and economic recessionary risks and concerns, given it's a product that can't be substituted. It can't be thrifted. We absolutely need it to generate about 10% of global electricity. Obviously, the electricity demand is just going up globally.

Their fundamental interest in uranium is clearly there. Is a lot of the hot money washed out? Absolutely. I think it's long gone. I think you have more fundamental investors in the sector right now. Clearly, it feels like some retail investors have come and gone, which is expected in any bull market. I think people get washed out because the sector can be volatile short-term, but that's not unexpected.

Many of these bull markets, which can last years, will have multiple meaningful short-term corrections. Maintaining conviction when the fundamentals look great is challenging, but sentiment and flows in the short term can impact performance.

James Connor: Yes. One thing we've learned in the last few years is that you have to be very patient when it comes to investing in uranium equities.

John Ciampaglia: I think that it goes for all commodities. If I go back in time and think about the 2000s and look at the gold bull market, Eric Sprott was a huge advocate and early proponent of investing in gold. Many people talked about gold’s run from $200 per ounce to $1,900, but it wasn't straight up. There were multiple 20, 30 and 40% corrections along the way, even though it had that overall huge gain.

It's common with all commodities. You get a lot of these violent corrections that can happen very quickly. They settle down, and then they resume. Now, you need strong fundamentals. In uranium, we can't point to one data point that says the fundamentals are worse now than they were six months ago, when the price of uranium was $73. That's obviously what we're focused on as fundamentals. However, sentiment can obviously have an oversized effect on returns and flows in the short term.

James Connor: John, as we wrap up, what message would you like to convey to investors? You might also consider what news events you think will be significant in the coming months as we head into year-end.

John Ciampaglia: I would say that people are generally fundamentally constructive about uranium. Yes, there have been some pockets of hedge funds that have been shorting some of the names. I am not sure what their investment thesis is. The other message I'd like to pass on is that many investors have told us, "We're really bullish. But what's the next catalyst going to be?” Predicting catalysts in this sector is hard, but we know they always come.

I would also mention that we're coming up to the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in September in London [World Nuclear Symposium 2025], which I know you will be there for, and we will be there with our team. Every two years, they put out a new demand forecast for uranium. If I go back to September 2023, that acted as a really interesting catalyst to get the uranium market going because it was a meaningful increase in expectations around demand between now and 2050.

We would expect WNA to put out another forecast in September that illustrates another tangible lift in demand, given all of these reactors getting life extensions and all of the planned reactors that you're hearing about. New York State, just the other day, said it wants to add nuclear capacity after closing one of its nuclear power stations in 2021.

They're going to start to build on these expectations, the hyperscalers and SMRs (small modular reactors). We bet that it's going to act as another positive catalyst when the market digests the incremental demand that is building in the system. At the same time, while we've had a lot of brownfield restarts of existing mines, we haven't had any greenfields come online yet.

That is proving to be more challenging than everybody would like to see. The supply side of the equation has been improving, but it has challenges, and the demand picture continues to grow. We're going to be looking out for that, and it's not too far away. That's potentially a big catalyst in the hopper for early September.

James Connor: John, thank you very much for spending time with us today and sharing your thoughts, and I look forward to seeing you in London.

John Ciampaglia: Thanks very much. Always good to chat. This conference is well-timed, given the renewed interest in uranium.