Investors Act with Conviction

For the latest standardized performance and holdings of Sprott Uranium ETFs, please visit the individual website pages: URNM and URNJ. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Key Takeaways

• Spot uranium rebounded to $82 in September (up 8.05%), with both spot and term prices moving higher as supply tightened and sentiment improved.
• Uranium miners rallied strongly, with the Northshore Global Uranium Mining Index up 17.01% and junior miners up 21.75% in the month, outpacing equities and commodities.
• Supply risks deepened as Cameco cut McArthur River guidance and Kazatomprom lowered 2026 production, reinforcing a structural deficit.
• Demand projections surged, with the WNA forecasting reactor requirements to more than double by 2040, boosted by Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and new entrants, including Microsoft.
• Policy and capital flows turned supportive, as the U.S. advanced fuel security measures, utilities moved earlier to secure their supply and equity/ETF inflows signaled renewed investor conviction.

Performance as of September 30, 2025

*Performance for periods under one year is not annualized.
Sources: Bloomberg and Sprott Asset Management LP. Data as of 9/30/2025. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Performance Overview: Uranium Markets Surge 

September saw uranium markets ignite as fresh capital flowed in, sentiment turned sharply positive and supply tightened, fueling the next leg of the uranium bull market.

Spot uranium posted a substantial gain of 8.05% in September, climbing to $82, reverting to the long-term price after being dislocated for several months (Figure 1). We did not believe this dislocation, which reached a maximum spread of $17 lb, was sustainable in a market that is in a structural deficit position. The move was not limited to spot prices either. After holding steady at $80 for eight consecutive months, the term price moved higher to $82. 

Figure 1. U308 Spot Price vs. Long-Term Contract Price (2004-2025)

Source: Bloomberg and UxC. Data as of 09/30/2025. U3O8 Spot Price is measured by the UxC Uranium U3O8 Spot Price (UXCPU308 UXCP Index), and U3O8 Long-Term Price is measured by the UxC Uranium U3O8 Long-Term Price (UXCPULTM UXCP Index). You cannot invest directly in an index. 

The continued improvement in the fundamentals of the uranium market has helped sentiment and contributed to the positive price action. On the supply side, Cameco reduced McArthur River 2025 guidance to 14-15 Mlbs, Kazatomprom reset its 100% 2026 production level to ~77 Mlbs with an explicit intent to operate below 100%, and multiple other miners lowered guidance, underscoring how difficult it is to add reliable primary supply at today’s incentive levels. These updates arrived alongside stronger demand signals from the widely attended World Nuclear Association (WNA) 2025 Symposium and the biennial WNA Nuclear Fuel report, which lifted long‑dated reactor requirements and increased the expected contribution from SMRs, widening the supply gap.

Uranium prices and miners rebounded in September, as supply tightened and capital flowed back in.

Uranium miners also benefited from the return of capital. Recent equity and convertible bond offerings have seen robust order books, showcasing strong investor demand and confidence in the sector. For example,  NexGen’s equity offering was notably upsized to AUD $600 million plus CAD $400 million (an additional AUD $200 million).⁶ Investor sentiment also reverberated into ETFs and stocks, as the recent trend of outflows from uranium ETFs reversed to inflows, and shorts were covered, falling from historically high positions. Together, these dynamics have begun to mirror the strength felt in the fundamentals of the uranium market and have led to the recent uranium market rally.

Uranium equities delivered impressive performance alongside the price breakout. Uranium miners¹ surged 17.01% and junior uranium miners² gained 21.75%, reflecting not just price momentum but a decisive shift in sector sentiment. The combination of strong price action and robust capital flows has reignited the bullish narrative. Looking at longer-term performance, uranium and uranium miners have meaningfully outpaced equities and broader commodity benchmarks over the past five years (Figure 2). 

Figure 2. Physical Uranium and Uranium Stocks Have Outperformed Other Asset Classes Over the Past Five Years (9/30/2020-9/30/2025)

Source: Bloomberg and Sprott Asset Management. Data as of 09/30/2025. Uranium Miners are measured by the Northshore Global Uranium Mining Index (URNMX index); Junior Uranium Miners are measured by the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJT™ Index); U.S. Equities are measured by the S&P 500 TR Index; the U308 Spot Price is from TradeTech; and Commodities are measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Definitions of the indices are provided in the footnotes. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

Market Drivers: Catalysts Lift Sentiment 

U.S. Strategic Uranium Reserve and Fuel-Security Policy

Chris Wright’s remarks as the head of the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) at the IAEA conference in September marked a clear escalation in the nation’s approach to nuclear fuel security. Wright outlined the administration’s intent to stockpile more uranium, phase out Russian-enriched uranium and accelerate domestic uranium and enrichment capacity.⁷ 

This urgency was echoed in September by the annual EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) uranium report, which highlighted a persistent supply gap for U.S. utilities and underscored the country’s heavy reliance on foreign uranium. According to the EIA, nearly all uranium purchased by U.S. utilities in recent years has originated from foreign sources, with domestic material accounting for only a small fraction of total purchases (Figure 3). Furthermore, the EIA warned that U.S. nuclear utilities are likely to face uranium shortages over the next decade, with the gap widening to more than three years of consumption. As a result, utilities may need to forge shorter-term arrangements to keep reactors operating.

The U.S. is moving to stockpile uranium, cut reliance on Russia and accelerate domestic fuel security—injecting billions into the sector.

The implications for U.S. producers and utilities are material. Previous reserve purchases by the DoE were made at premiums to spot and term prices, and new funding programs, including support for LEU (Low-Enriched Uranium) and HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) production, are set to inject billions into the sector. We would not be surprised if the DoE secures additional funding to acquire uranium, given that the U.S. government has announced capital allocations for several critical materials, including cobalt, lithium, antimony and rare earths. Utilities, which have ever-increasing future fuel requirements to cover, may have to compete with a new uranium buyer: the U.S. federal government.

As the U.S. deepens cooperation with allies on advanced nuclear technologies and supply chain resilience, the sector is poised for a new wave of investment and contracting. The market signals from September have increased the pool of capital available for project development and reinforced the bullish outlook for uranium producers.

Figure 3. U.S. Yearly Uranium Purchases: A Refocus on Energy Security (2020-2024)

Source: EIA. 2024 Uranium Marketing Annual Report. 

WNA Conference and Demand Momentum

Momentum at the World Nuclear Association’s September symposium underscored the sector’s accelerating growth. Interest in uranium was high, and sentiment was decisively positive, reflecting a market that is increasingly confident in long-term fundamentals.

The WNA’s latest fuel report delivered a critical upgrade to demand expectations. Reactor requirements in the Reference Scenario are now projected to rise from 175 million pounds U3O8e in 2024 to 391 million pounds by 2040, representing a 124% increase, compared to a 99% increase in the prior forecast (Figure 4). All scenarios (low, reference and upper) were revised higher by more than 50 million pounds, signaling a structural tightening that cannot be met without significant new supply.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) gained prominence in the WNA update. Total SMR capacity by 2040 was revised up 42% from the previous forecast and is now expected to account for 7% of global nuclear generation, reinforcing the role of advanced technologies in shaping future demand.

Microsoft joins the WNA, signaling that hyperscalers are betting big on nuclear as a long-term energy solution.

The symposium also highlighted a new class of demand entering the market. Microsoft joined the WNA, signaling that hyperscalers are “all in” on nuclear as a long-term energy solution.⁸ This development introduces a demand source with vast capital resources and the potential to disrupt traditional utility procurement models.

Bannerman Energy secured two long-term offtake agreements with leading North American utilities, providing critical funding visibility for its Etango project in exchange for future supply. This willingness to underwrite development risk marks a meaningful behavioral shift, reflects growing concern over uncovered requirements later this decade and underscores how utilities are moving earlier in the project cycle to lock in volumes amid a structurally tightening market.

The demand curve is steepening while supply remains constrained, and new entrants are reshaping the contracting landscape. These dynamics, we believe, strengthen the case for higher incentive pricing.

Figure 4. 2040 Uranium Reactor Requirements Forecast Increases

Source: WNA, World Nuclear Fuel Report: Global Scenarios for Demand and Supply Availability 2025-2040. 

Producer Discipline and Execution Risk

The uranium market’s supply side remains structurally tight, and recent developments have only reinforced the bullish narrative. While the WNA’s September fuel report delivered a robust demand outlook, its supply forecast notably missed five key production cuts announced since June. This omission means the market is even tighter than headline figures suggest.

Kazatomprom, the world’s largest and lowest-cost swing producer, decreased its quota by 8 million pounds, a structural reset that lowers 2026 nominal capacity to ~77 million pounds from 85 million pounds previously (Figure 5).⁹ This move alone removes about 4% of global supply from future balances. Importantly, Kazatomprom has signaled that it will exercise its option to “downflex” production by up to 20% below this new level, meaning actual 2026 output will be lower. The company’s market-centric approach is clear: “The company does not view the current supply-demand balance and existing uncovered demand as sufficient to incentivize a return to its 100% levels at this time.” This deliberate restraint supports price stability and signals confidence in uranium’s pricing power.

Kazatomprom’s decreased quota and Cameco’s McArthur River reduction highlight deepening supply strains.

Cameco contributed to the tightening narrative by reducing its 2025 guidance at McArthur River to 14–15 million pounds (down from 18 million pounds), a decrease of 3-4 million pounds, or ~19% of capacity.¹⁰ The cut was attributed to development delays and slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. While Cigar Lake remains steady at 18 million pounds, the McArthur River reduction highlights the operational complexity of uranium mining and the risk that Cameco may need to source pounds in the spot market to meet delivery commitments.

Beyond these headlines, execution risk persists across the development pipeline. NexGen in Canada faces longer-than-expected licensing processes, which are pushing back start-up dates. Boss Energy lowered FY (fiscal year) 2026 guidance at its flagship Honeymoon uranium project and other producers are also contending with technical and regulatory hurdles. Even with capital flowing back into the sector, the timeline from investment decision to first production remains long, reinforcing the narrative of a structural deficit.

The WNA’s demand upgrade is colliding with a supply base that is not elastic at current price levels. We believe producer discipline and persistent execution risk support a higher price. Utilities that have relied on a theoretical abundance of future supply narrative are now facing the stark reality: mining is hard, costs are rising, and higher prices in a supply-constrained world are imminent.

Figure 5. Kazatomprom Production Guidance Reductions (1997-2026)

Source: Kazatomprom Investor Handout August 2025. 

Looking Ahead: Uranium Market Momentum into Q4

The uranium market enters the final quarter of 2025 with momentum and a growing list of catalysts. Several factors will be important in shaping the uranium market as the cycle progresses. The pace of utility contracting will be critical, especially as uncovered requirements accumulate over the next decade. The ability of major producers to maintain disciplined output, alongside the progress and setbacks of new mine developments, will continue to influence near-term supply. Delays in permitting, cost inflation, and technical challenges persist as significant headwinds for supply. Meanwhile, China’s rapid nuclear build-out is adding further pressure, with aggressive procurement tightening the global market (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. 

Source: Global Nuclear Power Tracker, July 2024, Global Energy Monitor.

Capital flows within the sector are also signaling renewed momentum, as recent financing offerings have been well received, ETF flows have turned positive, and short positions are being covered. These dynamics, combined with the evolving structure of term contracts, suggest that uranium miners may be well positioned moving forward.

Uranium mine restarts and new mine development will be critical given that global uranium production is falling well short of reactor needs, the supply deficit is growing, and near-term output is constrained by long lead times and high capital costs. The uranium price target as an incentive level for further restarts and greenfield development is a moving target, and we believe that we will need higher uranium prices to incentivize enough production to meet forecasted deficits. Over the long term, increased demand in the face of an uncertain uranium supply may likely continue supporting a sustained bull market (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Uranium Bull Market Continues (1968-2025)

Click here to enlarge this chart.

Note: A “bull market” refers to a condition of financial markets in which prices are generally rising. A “bear market” refers to a condition of financial markets in which prices are generally falling.
Source: TradeTech Data as of 9/30/2025. TradeTech is the leading independent provider of uranium prices and nuclear fuel market information. The uranium prices in this chart, dating back to 1968, are sourced exclusively from TradeTech; visit https://www.uranium.info/.

Footnotes