Given gold’s sharp rise since May, September’s correction was not unexpected. We believe it is reflective of a new consolidation phase, and likely to be short term in nature. All factors that we consider to be significantly correlating to gold bullion indicate that we are still in the early stages of a major long-term advance.
Gold added $110 in August to close the month at $1,524, gaining 7.8% for the month. YTD gold is up 18.6%, ahead of the S&P 500 Index's rise of 15.34%. Gold equities impressed even more, climbing 46.4% YTD as measured by Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
July was positive for both gold and silver, which were propelled by the Fed’s interest rate cut on July 31, its first cut in 11 years. Any hope that this is a "one and done" rate hike has quickly been dashed with the latest U.S.-China trade war salvo. The long-term picture remains firmly intact. Gold and silver continue to rise as the market adjusts to a new central bank easing cycle.
Gold has moved above the critical $1,400 mark for the first time in nearly six years. We believe that gold may be decisively breaking out of a six-year cycle and that this may be the beginning of a powerful multi-year rally. It's an opportune moment for CEO Peter Grosskopf to share his guidance on gold investing.
"Most investors do not realize that gold is one of the world’s most liquid currencies and assets, trading with volumes equivalent to those of the euro or U.S. Treasury bond benchmarks. Although similar in philosophy, gold blows Bitcoin away on any measure by which the two can be compared....Perhaps now is finally the time for investors to benefit from a 'life preserver' while others enjoy the card game on the decks of the central bank-piloted Titanic."
We believe a new gold mining mergers and acquisitions (M&A) cycle has been ignited, and we expect this merger boom to accelerate over the next several years. Exploration is down, and new gold discoveries are scarce. Miners are strategically combining in order to increase production, reduce costs and improve operations.
We believe that gold equities are poised for a span of significant nominal and relative performance. A new wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is likely to provide a strong catalyst for gold miners in 2019.
Given the seminal nature of catalysts now in play for precious metals, we felt the timing appropriate for a comprehensive review of factors driving the gold price. In this report, we have compiled our Top 10 List of fundamentals supporting a portfolio allocation to gold in 2019.
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